Contrasting evolutionary outcomes in a human life history trait which is heritable and under consistent unbiased directional selection
Published in bioRxiv, 2025
Evolutionary predictions are usually made from two ingredients: the strength of selection and the heritability of the trait. This preprint treats replicate human populations as a natural experiment and asks whether those two ingredients are sufficient to predict what actually happened.
They are not. Across replicates in which the trait is demonstrably heritable and selection is consistent and unbiased in direction, the realized evolutionary outcomes diverge. The result places an empirical limit on evolutionary forecasting in structured, environmentally variable populations.
Recommended citation: Mawass, W., and Milot, E. (2025). "Contrasting evolutionary outcomes in a human life history trait which is heritable and under consistent unbiased directional selection." bioRxiv, 2025.10.13.682154.